Sometime ago we refered to Ryanair's planned 2014 summer routes to RHO with a question if there's someting wrong with the deal Rhodes and the airline have signed. We also gathered and compared 2013 and 2014 routes in terms of service periods and weekly flights where we observed some serious cutbacks from the Irish. (see here)
We now go one step ahead as we transformed these info into actual flight and passenger numbers in order to compare, understand and judge better the airline moves. We are unaware of any airline communication with local officials but there should be because Rhodes pays Ryanair for 6 months operations and not for bringing people almost exclusively in high season which will be the case in 4 out of 12 routes. This change means some 7.000 less passengers, an almost 8% of Ryanair's 2013 summer total estimated arrivals which in turn contribute to an overall 6% decrease in Ryan's expected arrivals for 2014 summer.
At this point we have to mention that the airline could theoretically -and may believe so- bring same or even more passengers with less flights provided that load factors would rise to 95-100% opposed to 2013's estimated 85%, figures that are surely more feasible during high season months. That seems to be the reason for operating much more flights between June and September than operating routes for 6 months with lower yields, 72% of Ryan's 2014 overall schedule will be conducted between June and September oposed to 61% for 2013.
Trying to explain the cutbacks, well, Ryanair's movement may seem logical for themselves but for Rhodes poses some real questions if not threats. For Ryanair cutbacks and more high season flights mean fully loaded planes and higher yields as traditionally high season fares are the most expensive throughout the season. In addition we must take into account the fleet shortage of the airline meaning that they choose to fly routes that perform better. On the other hand, we should not forget that the Irish are paid for their services and for sure Rhodes doesn't need to pay an airline to bring the majority of their customers during high season. Moreover, this trend could harm relations with other airlines as well tour operators since so far Ryanair fees were communicated as equal to 6-7 months traffic and not as high season plus some. Finally, we should not forget that Rhodes-Ryanair deal is in its second and last year so negotiations are expected for a new contract. Local authorities hopefully are already working on a new contract which in our humble opinion should focus either in establishing a summer base here likewise Chania or alternatively increasing destinations from around Europe in a more orthological way.
As a conclusion, and answering this post headline question, yes, Ryanair is definitely cutting flights and seats but it remains to be seen the actual outcome of these cutbacks.
Below you can see tables and stats comparing Ryanair's 2013 to 2014 summer operations. Please note that actual flights may differ a bit (no stats for cancelled flights and some that continued till early November) while the estimated passengers figure is based for 2013 in an average load factor of 85% and for 2014 to 85% for 7 months served routes going up to 90% for routes served only between June-September. Though we may prove inaccurate in 2014's passenger arrivals estimation due to load factors differences, rest of the data were based on Ryanair's actual Rhodes schedule as of 17 January 2014 and are 100% valid for the purpose of this article. Of course if Ryanair adds or subtracts flights or change dates we will update in case changes alter stats significantly.
We now go one step ahead as we transformed these info into actual flight and passenger numbers in order to compare, understand and judge better the airline moves. We are unaware of any airline communication with local officials but there should be because Rhodes pays Ryanair for 6 months operations and not for bringing people almost exclusively in high season which will be the case in 4 out of 12 routes. This change means some 7.000 less passengers, an almost 8% of Ryanair's 2013 summer total estimated arrivals which in turn contribute to an overall 6% decrease in Ryan's expected arrivals for 2014 summer.
At this point we have to mention that the airline could theoretically -and may believe so- bring same or even more passengers with less flights provided that load factors would rise to 95-100% opposed to 2013's estimated 85%, figures that are surely more feasible during high season months. That seems to be the reason for operating much more flights between June and September than operating routes for 6 months with lower yields, 72% of Ryan's 2014 overall schedule will be conducted between June and September oposed to 61% for 2013.
Trying to explain the cutbacks, well, Ryanair's movement may seem logical for themselves but for Rhodes poses some real questions if not threats. For Ryanair cutbacks and more high season flights mean fully loaded planes and higher yields as traditionally high season fares are the most expensive throughout the season. In addition we must take into account the fleet shortage of the airline meaning that they choose to fly routes that perform better. On the other hand, we should not forget that the Irish are paid for their services and for sure Rhodes doesn't need to pay an airline to bring the majority of their customers during high season. Moreover, this trend could harm relations with other airlines as well tour operators since so far Ryanair fees were communicated as equal to 6-7 months traffic and not as high season plus some. Finally, we should not forget that Rhodes-Ryanair deal is in its second and last year so negotiations are expected for a new contract. Local authorities hopefully are already working on a new contract which in our humble opinion should focus either in establishing a summer base here likewise Chania or alternatively increasing destinations from around Europe in a more orthological way.
As a conclusion, and answering this post headline question, yes, Ryanair is definitely cutting flights and seats but it remains to be seen the actual outcome of these cutbacks.
Below you can see tables and stats comparing Ryanair's 2013 to 2014 summer operations. Please note that actual flights may differ a bit (no stats for cancelled flights and some that continued till early November) while the estimated passengers figure is based for 2013 in an average load factor of 85% and for 2014 to 85% for 7 months served routes going up to 90% for routes served only between June-September. Though we may prove inaccurate in 2014's passenger arrivals estimation due to load factors differences, rest of the data were based on Ryanair's actual Rhodes schedule as of 17 January 2014 and are 100% valid for the purpose of this article. Of course if Ryanair adds or subtracts flights or change dates we will update in case changes alter stats significantly.
2013 Summer
|
2014 Summer
|
|||||
Airp.
|
TF
|
TSA
|
EPA
|
TF
|
TSA
|
EPA
|
BLQ
|
30
|
5.670
|
4.820
|
25
|
4.725
|
4.252
|
BOH
|
30
|
5.670
|
4.820
|
25
|
4.725
|
4.134
|
CRL
|
54
|
10.206
|
8.675
|
59
|
11.151
|
9.478
|
EMA
|
34
|
6.426
|
5.462
|
43
|
8.127
|
6.907
|
HHN
|
30
|
5.670
|
4.820
|
16
|
3.024
|
2.721
|
KUN
|
30
|
5.670
|
4.820
|
30
|
5.670
|
4.820
|
LPL
|
60
|
11.340
|
9.640
|
51
|
9.639
|
8.434
|
STN
|
70
|
13.230
|
11.245
|
89
|
16.821
|
14.298
|
BGY
|
74
|
13.986
|
11.888
|
67
|
12.663
|
10.763
|
PSA
|
60
|
11.340
|
9.640
|
30
|
5.670
|
5.103
|
CIA
|
30
|
5.670
|
4.820
|
25
|
4.725
|
4.252
|
NYO
|
60
|
11.340
|
9.640
|
60
|
11.340
|
9.640
|
562
|
106.218
|
90.290
|
520
|
98.280
|
84.802
|
|
*BLQ=Bologna, BOH=Bournemouth, CRL=Charleroi, EMA=East Midlands, HHN=Frankfurt Hahn, KUN=Kaunas, LPL=Liverpool, STN=London
Stansted, BGY= Milan Bergamo,
PSA=Pisa, CIA=Rome
Ciampino, NYO=Stockholm
Skavsta
*TF=total inbound flights, TSA=total seats available, EPA=estimated
passengers arrivals
High Season 2013 Vs 2014
|
||||
Airp.
|
June
|
July
|
August
|
September
|
BLQ
|
4 Vs 4
|
4 Vs 5
|
5 Vs 4+4
|
4 Vs 4
|
BOH
|
4 Vs 4
|
5 Vs 5
|
4 Vs 4
|
4 Vs 4
|
CRL
|
9 Vs 9
|
8 Vs 9
|
9 Vs 9
|
9 Vs 8
|
EMA
|
5 Vs 4+4**
|
4 Vs 4+5
|
5+4 Vs 5+4
|
4 Vs 4
|
HHN
|
4 Vs 0
|
5 Vs 4
|
4 Vs 4
|
5 Vs 5
|
KUN
|
5 Vs 4
|
4 Vs 4
|
5 Vs 5
|
4 Vs 4
|
LPL
|
8 Vs 9
|
9 Vs 9
|
9 Vs 8
|
9 Vs 9
|
STN
|
9 Vs 8+4
|
9 Vs 9+5
|
9+9 Vs 9+13
|
8 Vs 9+4
|
BGY
|
9 Vs 9+4
|
9 Vs 9
|
8+14 Vs 9+13
|
9 Vs 8
|
PSA
|
9 Vs 8
|
9 Vs 9
|
9 Vs 9+4
|
8 Vs 9
|
CIA
|
5 Vs 4
|
4 Vs 4
|
4 Vs 5+4
|
5 Vs 4
|
NYO
|
9 Vs 8
|
9 Vs 9
|
9 Vs 9
|
8 Vs 8
|
80 Vs 71+12
|
79 Vs 80+10
|
80+27 Vs 80+42
|
77 Vs 76+4
|
|
*BLQ=Bologna, BOH=Bournemouth, CRL=Charleroi, EMA=East Midlands, HHN=Frankfurt Hahn, KUN=Kaunas, LPL=Liverpool, STN=London
Stansted, BGY= Milan Bergamo,
PSA=Pisa, CIA=Rome
Ciampino, NYO=Stockholm
Skavsta
**4+4 indicates 4 all season monthly scheduled flights + 4 extra monthly
flights
2013 June-September total flights: 316+27EWF=343
2014 June-September total flights: 307+68EWF=375
2013 June-September total flights/ Total Nr Flights: 343/562=61%
2014 June-September total flights/ Total Nr Flights: 375/520=72%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013 July-August total flights: 159+27EWF=186
2014 July-August total flights: 160+52EWF=212
2013 July-August total flights/ Total Nr Flights: 186/562=33%
2014 July-August total flights/ Total Nr Flights: 212/520=40%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013 EWF/Total Nr Flights: 27/562=4.8%
2014 EWF/Total Nr Flights: 68/520=13%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013 June-September EWF/June-September total flights: 27/343=7.8%
2014 June-September EWF/June-September total flights: 18.1%
2013 July-August EWF/July-August total flights: 27/186=14.5%
2014 July-August EWF/June-September total flights: 24.5%
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